There is no single answer, because shelf life is a property of a product **in a pack under conditions**, not of a commodity.
What sets it:
- **Water activity.** The lower it is, the more restricted microbial growth is. This is the dominant factor for microbiological stability.
- **The packaging barrier.** A product will drift toward equilibrium with whatever it can exchange moisture and oxygen with. A permeable film shortens shelf life regardless of how well the product was dried.
- **Storage temperature and humidity.** Warmer storage accelerates browning and oxidation, and temperature cycling can condense moisture inside the pack.
- **The failure mode you are measuring.** Most dried fruit shelf lives end on texture or colour long before microbiology. Which one you claim against changes the answer.
- **Whether sulphites are present**, since they contribute an antimicrobial and antioxidant effect that declines over time.
A defensible shelf life claim comes from real-time storage trials in the actual pack, sampling at intervals against defined failure modes, with the storage conditions written into the claim. Accelerated trials are an indicator only, because they can change which reaction dominates.
Practical rule for a buyer: a shelf life stated without a pack specification and storage conditions is not a shelf life, it is an estimate you will be holding when it fails.